Predictions

Each nation’s run from 20,000 Monte-Carlo tournament simulations - chance of topping the group, reaching each round, and lifting the trophy. Sort any column.

#	Team	Grp	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion ↓
1	Spain	H	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%
2	Brazil	C	100%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
3	Australia	D	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
4	Curaçao	E	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	B	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
6	United States	D	100%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
7	Paraguay	D	100%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
8	Switzerland	B	100%	100%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
9	Morocco	C	100%	100%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
10	Haiti	C	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
11	Scotland	C	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
12	Türkiye	D	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
13	Germany	E	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
14	Ivory Coast	E	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
15	Ecuador	E	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
16	Korea Republic	A	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
17	Netherlands	F	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
18	Czechia	A	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
19	Mexico	A	100%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
20	South Africa	A	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
21	Canada	B	100%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
22	Japan	F	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
23	Tunisia	F	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
24	Egypt	G	100%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
25	Iran	G	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
26	New Zealand	G	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
27	Cape Verde	H	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
28	Saudi Arabia	H	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
29	Iraq	I	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
30	Jordan	J	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
31	Uzbekistan	K	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
32	Ghana	L	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
33	Sweden	F	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
34	Belgium	G	100%	100%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
35	Uruguay	H	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
36	France	I	100%	100%	100%	<1%	<0.1%
37	Senegal	I	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
38	Norway	I	100%	100%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
39	Argentina	J	100%	100%	100%	100%	<0.1%
40	Algeria	J	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
41	Austria	J	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
42	Portugal	K	100%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
43	DR Congo	K	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
44	Colombia	K	100%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
45	England	L	100%	100%	100%	<1%	<0.1%
46	Croatia	L	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
47	Qatar	B	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%
48	Panama	L	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<0.1%